Potential impact of annual vaccination with reformulated COVID-19 vaccines: Lessons from the US COVID-19 scenario modeling hub.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to cause significant hospitalizations and deaths in the United States. Its continued burden and the impact of annually reformulated vaccines remain unclear. Here, we present projections of COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths in the United States for the next 2 years under 2 plausible assumptions about immune escape (20% per year and 50% per year) and 3 possible CDC recommendations for the use of annually reformulated vaccines (no recommendation, vaccination for those aged 65 years and over, vaccination for all eligible age groups based on FDA approval). METHODS AND FINDINGS: The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub solicited projections of COVID-19 hospitalization and deaths between April 15, 2023 and April 15, 2025 under 6 scenarios representing the intersection of considered levels of immune escape and vaccination. Annually reformulated vaccines are assumed to be 65% effective against symptomatic infection with strains circulating on June 15 of each year and to become available on September 1. Age- and state-specific coverage in recommended groups was assumed to match that seen for the first (fall 2021) COVID-19 booster. State and national projections from 8 modeling teams were ensembled to produce projections for each scenario and expected reductions in disease outcomes due to vaccination over the projection period. From April 15, 2023 to April 15, 2025, COVID-19 is projected to cause annual epidemics peaking November to January. In the most pessimistic scenario (high immune escape, no vaccination recommendation), we project 2.1 million (90% projection interval (PI) [1,438,000, 4,270,000]) hospitalizations and 209,000 (90% PI [139,000, 461,000]) deaths, exceeding pre-pandemic mortality of influenza and pneumonia. In high immune escape scenarios, vaccination of those aged 65+ results in 230,000 (95% confidence interval (CI) [104,000, 355,000]) fewer hospitalizations and 33,000 (95% CI [12,000, 54,000]) fewer deaths, while vaccination of all eligible individuals results in 431,000 (95% CI: 264,000-598,000) fewer hospitalizations and 49,000 (95% CI [29,000, 69,000]) fewer deaths. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 is projected to be a significant public health threat over the coming 2 years. Broad vaccination has the potential to substantially reduce the burden of this disease, saving tens of thousands of lives each year.

flepiMoP: The evolution of a flexible infectious disease modeling pipeline during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The COVID-19 pandemic led to an unprecedented demand for projections of disease burden and healthcare utilization under scenarios ranging from unmitigated spread to strict social distancing policies. In response, members of the Johns Hopkins Infectious Disease Dynamics Group developed flepiMoP (formerly called the COVID Scenario Modeling Pipeline), a comprehensive open-source software pipeline designed for creating and simulating compartmental models of infectious disease transmission and inferring parameters through these models. The framework has been used extensively to produce short-term forecasts and longer-term scenario projections of COVID-19 at the state and county level in the US, for COVID-19 in other countries at various geographic scales, and more recently for seasonal influenza. In this paper, we highlight how the flepiMoP has evolved throughout the COVID-19 pandemic to address changing epidemiological dynamics, new interventions, and shifts in policy-relevant model outputs. As the framework has reached a mature state, we provide a detailed overview of flepiMoP's key features and remaining limitations, thereby distributing flepiMoP and its documentation as a flexible and powerful tool for researchers and public health professionals to rapidly build and deploy large-scale complex infectious disease models for any pathogen and demographic setup.

Evaluation of the US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub for informing pandemic response under uncertainty.

Our ability to forecast epidemics far into the future is constrained by the many complexities of disease systems. Realistic longer-term projections may, however, be possible under well-defined scenarios that specify the future state of critical epidemic drivers. Since December 2020, the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub (SMH) has convened multiple modeling teams to make months ahead projections of SARS-CoV-2 burden, totaling nearly 1.8 million national and state-level projections. Here, we find SMH performance varied widely as a function of both scenario validity and model calibration. We show scenarios remained close to reality for 22 weeks on average before the arrival of unanticipated SARS-CoV-2 variants invalidated key assumptions. An ensemble of participating models that preserved variation between models (using the linear opinion pool method) was consistently more reliable than any single model in periods of valid scenario assumptions, while projection interval coverage was near target levels. SMH projections were used to guide pandemic response, illustrating the value of collaborative hubs for longer-term scenario projections.

Bartonella Infection in Fruit Bats and Bat Flies, Bangladesh.

Bats harbor diverse intracellular Bartonella bacteria, but there is limited understanding of the factors that influence transmission over time. Investigation of Bartonella dynamics in bats could reveal general factors that control transmission of multiple bat-borne pathogens, including viruses. We used molecular methods to detect Bartonella DNA in paired bat (Pteropus medius) blood and bat flies in the family Nycteribiidae collected from a roost in Faridpur, Bangladesh between September 2020 and January 2021. We detected high prevalence of Bartonella DNA in bat blood (35/55, 64%) and bat flies (59/60, 98%), with sequences grouping into three phylogenetic clades. Prevalence in bat blood increased over the study period (33% to 90%), reflecting an influx of juvenile bats in the population and an increase in the prevalence of bat flies. Discordance between infection status and the clade/genotype of detected Bartonella was also observed in pairs of bats and their flies, providing evidence that bat flies take blood meals from multiple bat hosts. This evidence of bat fly transfer between hosts and the changes in Bartonella prevalence during a period of increasing nycteribiid density support the role of bat flies as vectors of bartonellae. The study provides novel information on comparative prevalence and genetic diversity of Bartonella in pteropodid bats and their ectoparasites, as well as demographic factors that affect Bartonella transmission and potentially other bat-borne pathogens.

The genetic diversity of Nipah virus across spatial scales.

Nipah virus (NiV), a highly lethal virus in humans, circulates silently in Pteropus bats throughout South and Southeast Asia. Difficulty in obtaining genomes from bats means we have a poor understanding of NiV diversity, including how many lineages circulate within a roost and the spread of NiV over increasing spatial scales. Here we develop phylogenetic approaches applied to the most comprehensive collection of genomes to date (N=257, 175 from bats, 73 from humans) from six countries over 22 years (1999-2020). In Bangladesh, where most human infections occur, we find evidence of increased spillover risk from one of the two co-circulating sublineages. We divide the four major NiV sublineages into 15 genetic clusters (emerged 20-44 years ago). Within any bat roost, there are an average of 2.4 co-circulating genetic clusters, rising to 5.5 clusters at areas of 1,500-2,000 km2. Using Approximate Bayesian Computation fit to a spatial signature of viral diversity, we estimate that each genetic cluster occupies an average area of 1.3 million km2 (95%CI: 0.6-2.3 million), with 14 clusters in an area of 100,000 km2 (95%CI: 6-24). In the few sites in Bangladesh and Cambodia where genomic surveillance has been concentrated, we estimate that most of the genetic clusters have been identified, but only ~15% of overall NiV diversity has been uncovered. Our findings are consistent with entrenched co-circulation of distinct lineages, even within individual roosts, coupled with slow migration over larger spatial scales.

Evaluation of FluSight influenza forecasting in the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons with a new target laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations.

Accurate forecasts can enable more effective public health responses during seasonal influenza epidemics. Forecasting teams were asked to provide national and jurisdiction-specific probabilistic predictions of weekly confirmed influenza hospital admissions for one through four weeks ahead for the 2021-22 and 2022-23 influenza seasons. Across both seasons, 26 teams submitted forecasts, with the submitting teams varying between seasons. Forecast skill was evaluated using the Weighted Interval Score (WIS), relative WIS, and coverage. Six out of 23 models outperformed the baseline model across forecast weeks and locations in 2021-22 and 12 out of 18 models in 2022-23. Averaging across all forecast targets, the FluSight ensemble was the 2nd most accurate model measured by WIS in 2021-22 and the 5th most accurate in the 2022-23 season. Forecast skill and 95% coverage for the FluSight ensemble and most component models degraded over longer forecast horizons and during periods of rapid change. Current influenza forecasting efforts help inform situational awareness, but research is needed to address limitations, including decreased performance during periods of changing epidemic dynamics.

First detection of Bartonella spp. in bat bugs Cimex pipistrelli (Hemiptera: Cimicidae), Central Europe.

Bats are an important reservoir for many viral pathogens in humans. However, their role in the transmission of bacterial pathogens is neglected, as is that of their ectoparasites. This study focuses on the molecular detection of Bartonella spp. in bat bugs Cimex pipistrelli using partial sequences of gltA (citrate synthase), ssrA (transfer messenger RNA, tmRNA), and the 16S-23S rDNA internal transcribed spacer (ITS) region as targets. Bartonella DNA was detected in 2/112 (1.79% prevalence) samples from bat bugs. Due to the fact that bat bugs can sporadically bite humans, more extensive surveillance and vector competence studies are needed to ascertain zoonotic risk of bat-associated Bartonella spp.

Detection of Leptospira species in bat cadavers, Czech and Slovak Republics.

Kidney samples from 300 bat cadavers from the Czech and Slovak Republics were tested for Leptospira DNA using PCR and sequencing of three genes (lipL32, flab, and 16S ribosomal RNA). Overall detection rate was 4.7% and two bat species (Myotis myotis and Nyctalus noctula) were PCR-positive for at least one gene. Detected Leptospira sequences were similar to L. interrogans and L. borgpetersenii, and included a potentially novel species related to L. weilii.

Molecular Characterization of a Novel Relapsing Fever Borrelia Species from the Desert Cottontail (Sylvilagus audubonii) in New Mexico, USA.

The Borrelia genus comprises vector-borne, spirochete bacteria infecting vertebrates worldwide. We characterized a novel relapsing fever Borrelia species from a desert cottontail (Syvilagus audubonii) from New Mexico, US, using an established multilocus sequence analysis approach. Phylogenetic analysis of the flagellin gene (flaB) and four other protein-coding loci (clpX, pepX, recG, rplB) grouped the novel Borrelia species with hard tick relapsing fever borreliae Borrelia lonestari, Borrelia theileri, and Borrelia miyamotoi. The identity of the vectors and other vertebrate hosts, geographic distribution, and zoonotic potential of this novel Borrelia species deserve further investigation.

Nipah Virus Detection at Bat Roosts after Spillover Events, Bangladesh, 2012-2019.

Knowledge of the dynamics and genetic diversity of Nipah virus circulating in bats and at the human-animal interface is limited by current sampling efforts, which produce few detections of viral RNA. We report a series of investigations at Pteropus medius bat roosts identified near the locations of human Nipah cases in Bangladesh during 2012-2019. Pooled bat urine was collected from 23 roosts; 7 roosts (30%) had >1 sample in which Nipah RNA was detected from the first visit. In subsequent visits to these 7 roosts, RNA was detected in bat urine up to 52 days after the presumed exposure of the human case-patient, although the probability of detection declined rapidly with time. These results suggest that rapidly deployed investigations of Nipah virus shedding from bat roosts near human cases could increase the success of viral sequencing compared with background surveillance and could enhance understanding of Nipah virus ecology and evolution.

Why do some coronaviruses become pandemic threats when others do not?

Despite multiple spillover events and short chains of transmission on at least 4 continents, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) has never triggered a pandemic. By contrast, its relative, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has, despite apparently little, if any, previous circulation in humans. Resolving the unsolved mystery of the failure of MERS-CoV to trigger a pandemic could help inform how we understand the pandemic potential of pathogens, and probing it underscores a need for a more holistic understanding of the ways in which viral genetic changes scale up to population-level transmission.

Curating the Evidence About COVID-19 for Frontline Public Health and Clinical Care: The Novel Coronavirus Research Compendium.

The public health crisis created by the COVID-19 pandemic has spurred a deluge of scientific research aimed at informing the public health and medical response to the pandemic. However, early in the pandemic, those working in frontline public health and clinical care had insufficient time to parse the rapidly evolving evidence and use it for decision-making. Academics in public health and medicine were well-placed to translate the evidence for use by frontline clinicians and public health practitioners. The Novel Coronavirus Research Compendium (NCRC), a group of >60 faculty and trainees across the United States, formed in March 2020 with the goal to quickly triage and review the large volume of preprints and peer-reviewed publications on SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 and summarize the most important, novel evidence to inform pandemic response. From April 6 through December 31, 2020, NCRC teams screened 54 192 peer-reviewed articles and preprints, of which 527 were selected for review and uploaded to the NCRC website for public consumption. Most articles were peer-reviewed publications (n = 395, 75.0%), published in 102 journals; 25.1% (n = 132) of articles reviewed were preprints. The NCRC is a successful model of how academics translate scientific knowledge for practitioners and help build capacity for this work among students. This approach could be used for health problems beyond COVID-19, but the effort is resource intensive and may not be sustainable in the long term.

Ecology, evolution and spillover of coronaviruses from bats.

In the past two decades, three coronaviruses with ancestral origins in bats have emerged and caused widespread outbreaks in humans, including severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Since the first SARS epidemic in 2002-2003, the appreciation of bats as key hosts of zoonotic coronaviruses has advanced rapidly. More than 4,000 coronavirus sequences from 14 bat families have been identified, yet the true diversity of bat coronaviruses is probably much greater. Given that bats are the likely evolutionary source for several human coronaviruses, including strains that cause mild upper respiratory tract disease, their role in historic and future pandemics requires ongoing investigation. We review and integrate information on bat-coronavirus interactions at the molecular, tissue, host and population levels. We identify critical gaps in knowledge of bat coronaviruses, which relate to spillover and pandemic risk, including the pathways to zoonotic spillover, the infection dynamics within bat reservoir hosts, the role of prior adaptation in intermediate hosts for zoonotic transmission and the viral genotypes or traits that predict zoonotic capacity and pandemic potential. Filling these knowledge gaps may help prevent the next pandemic.

Seasonality of Date Palm Sap Feeding Behavior by Bats in Bangladesh.

Pteropus bats are the natural reservoir for Nipah virus, and in Bangladesh, it is transmitted to people through consumption of raw or fermented date palm sap. Our objective was to understand seasonal patterns of bat feeding on date palm sap at a location where sap is collected year-round. Seven nights each month over three years, we mounted infrared cameras in four trees to observe bats' feeding behavior at date palm trees harvested for fermented sap production. We described the frequency of bat visits, duration of bat visits, and duration of bat-sap contact by month and by year. We captured 42,873 bat visits during 256 camera-nights of observation, of which 3% were Pteropus and 94% were non-Pteropus bats. Though the frequency of Pteropus bat visits to each tree/night was much lower than non-Pteropus bat visits, Pteropus bats stayed in contact with sap longer than non-Pteropus bats. Frequency of bat visits was higher during winter compared to other seasons, which may arise as a consequence of limited availability of food sources during this period or may be related to seasonal characteristics of the sap. Seasonal alignment of sap consumption by humans and bats may have consequences for viral spillover into humans.

Comparison of sand fly trapping approaches for vector surveillance of Leishmania and Bartonella species in ecologically distinct, endemic regions of Peru.

BACKGROUND: In Peru, the information regarding sand fly vectors of leishmaniasis and bartonellosis in the Amazon region is limited. In this study, we carried out sand fly collections in Peruvian lowland and highland jungle areas using different trap type configurations and screened them for Leishmania and Bartonella DNA. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Phlebotomine sand flies were collected in Peruvian Amazon jungle and inter Andean regions using CDC light trap, UV and color LED traps, Mosquito Magnet trap, BG Sentinel trap, and a Shannon trap placed outside the houses. Leishmania spp. screening was performed by kDNA PCR and confirmed by a nested cytochrome B gene (cytB) PCR. Bartonella spp. screening was performed by ITS PCR and confirmed by citrate synthase gene (gltA). The PCR amplicons were sequenced to identify Leishmania and Bartonella species. UV and Blue LED traps collected the highest average number of sand flies per hour in low jungle; UV, Mosquito Magnet and Shannon traps in high jungle; and Mosquito Magnet in inter Andean region. Leishmania guyanensis in Lutzomyia carrerai carrerai and L. naiffi in Lu. hirsuta hirsuta were identified based on cytB sequencing. Bartonella spp. related to Bartonella bacilliformis in Lu. whitmani, Lu. nevesi, Lu. hirsuta hirsuta and Lu. sherlocki, and a Bartonella sp. related to Candidatus B. rondoniensis in Lu. nevesi and Lu. maranonensis were identified based on gltA gene sequencing. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: UV, Blue LED, Mosquito Magnet and Shannon traps were more efficient than the BG-Sentinel, Green, and Red LED traps. This is the first report of L. naiffi and of two genotypes of Bartonella spp. related to B. bacilliformis and Candidatus B. rondoniensis infecting sand fly species from the Amazon region in Peru.

Bats are key hosts in the radiation of mammal-associated Bartonella bacteria.

Bats are notorious reservoirs of several zoonotic diseases and may be uniquely tolerant of infection among mammals. Broad sampling has revealed the importance of bats in the diversification and spread of viruses and eukaryotes to other animal hosts. Vector-borne bacteria of the genus Bartonella are prevalent and diverse in mammals globally and recent surveys have revealed numerous Bartonella lineages in bats. We assembled a sequence database of Bartonella strains, consisting of nine genetic loci from 209 previously characterized Bartonella lineages and 121 new cultured isolates from bats, and used these data to perform a comprehensive phylogenetic analysis of the Bartonella genus. This analysis included estimation of divergence dates using a molecular clock and ancestral reconstruction of host associations and geography. We estimate that Bartonella began infecting mammals 62 million years ago near the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary. Additionally, the radiation of particular Bartonella clades correlate strongly to the timing of diversification and biogeography of mammalian hosts. Bats were inferred to be the ancestral hosts of all mammal-associated Bartonella and appear to be responsible for the early geographic expansion of the genus. We conclude that bats have had a deep influence on the evolutionary radiation of Bartonella bacteria and their spread to other mammalian orders. These results support a 'bat seeding' hypothesis that could explain similar evolutionary patterns in other mammalian parasite taxa. Application of such phylogenetic tools as we have used to other taxa may reveal the general importance of bats in the ancient diversification of mammalian parasites.

The Ecology of Nipah Virus in Bangladesh: A Nexus of Land-Use Change and Opportunistic Feeding Behavior in Bats.

Nipah virus is a bat-borne paramyxovirus that produces yearly outbreaks of fatal encephalitis in Bangladesh. Understanding the ecological conditions that lead to spillover from bats to humans can assist in designing effective interventions. To investigate the current and historical processes that drive Nipah spillover in Bangladesh, we analyzed the relationship among spillover events and climatic conditions, the spatial distribution and size of Pteropus medius roosts, and patterns of land-use change in Bangladesh over the last 300 years. We found that 53% of annual variation in winter spillovers is explained by winter temperature, which may affect bat behavior, physiology, and human risk behaviors. We infer from changes in forest cover that a progressive shift in bat roosting behavior occurred over hundreds of years, producing the current system where a majority of P. medius populations are small (median of 150 bats), occupy roost sites for 10 years or more, live in areas of high human population density, and opportunistically feed on cultivated food resources-conditions that promote viral spillover. Without interventions, continuing anthropogenic pressure on bat populations similar to what has occurred in Bangladesh could result in more regular spillovers of other bat viruses, including Hendra and Ebola viruses.

Trypanosoma (Herpetosoma) diversity in rodents and lagomorphs of New Mexico with a focus on epizootological aspects of infection in Southern Plains woodrats (Neotoma micropus).

Protozoan parasites of the genus Trypanosoma infect a broad diversity of vertebrates and several species cause significant illness in humans. However, understanding of the phylogenetic diversity, host associations, and infection dynamics of Trypanosoma species in naturally infected animals is incomplete. This study investigated the presence of Trypanosoma spp. in wild rodents and lagomorphs in northern New Mexico, United States, as well as phylogenetic relationships among these parasites. A total of 458 samples from 13 rodent and one lagomorph species collected between November 2002 and July 2004 were tested by nested PCR targeting the 18S ribosomal RNA gene (18S rRNA). Trypanosoma DNA was detected in 25.1% of all samples, with the highest rates of 50% in Sylvilagus audubonii, 33.1% in Neotoma micropus, and 32% in Peromyscus leucopus. Phylogenetic analysis of Trypanosoma sequences revealed five haplotypes within the subgenus Herpetosoma (T. lewisi clade). Focused analysis on the large number of samples from N. micropus showed that Trypanosoma infection varied by age class and that the same Trypanosoma haplotype could be detected in recaptured individuals over multiple months. This is the first report of Trypanosoma infections in Dipodomys ordii and Otospermophilus variegatus, and the first detection of a haplotype phylogenetically related to T. nabiasi in North America in S. audubonii. This study lends important new insight into the diversity of Trypanosoma species, their geographic ranges and host associations, and the dynamics of infection in natural populations.

Bartonella species in medically important mosquitoes, Central Europe.

Here, we provide the first mass molecular screening of medically important mosquitoes for Bartonella species using multiple genetic markers. We examined a total of 72,115 mosquito specimens, morphologically attributed to Aedes vexans (61,050 individuals), Culex pipiens (10,484 individuals) and species of the Anopheles maculipennis complex (581 individuals) for Bartonella spp. The initial screening yielded 63 Bartonella-positive A. vexans mosquitoes (mean prevalence 0.1%), 34 Bartonella-positive C. pipiens mosquitoes (mean prevalence 0.3%) and 158 Bartonella-positive A. maculipennis group mosquitoes (mean prevalence 27.2%). Several different Bartonella ITS sequences were recovered. This study highlights the need for molecular screening of mosquitoes, the most important vectors of arthropod-borne pathogens, for potential bacterial agents.